Tallinn Fare-Free Public Transport — Resident Free Rides Since 2013, with a Modest Evidence-Based Effect

Tallinn abolished fares for registered residents on its municipal bus, tram and trolleybus network in January 2013, following a March 2012 referendum approved by about 75% of voters. Lost ticket revenue was reported at roughly €12 million a year, offset in part by additional income-tax revenue linked to residents registering in the city.
The most rigorous evaluation is Cats, Susilo and Reimal (Transportation, 2017): a before/after survey of 1,500 randomly sampled households with travel diaries found public-transport use rose 14% about a year after launch, and evidence that the mobility of low-income residents improved. The authors note the effect is much smaller than in earlier fare-free schemes, which they attribute to Tallinn's already good service, high transit use and low fares.
An earlier analysis in the Transportation Research Record estimated that fare removal itself explained only about 1.2% of the demand increase, the remainder stemming from new bus priority lanes and higher frequencies introduced at the same time.
Cautionary evidence: one journalistic account reports 140 million trips in 2012 versus 142 million in 2018, i.e. little lasting growth, and another cites rising car commuting; the national audit view is that the goal of reducing car use was not met. Tallinn is therefore a well-documented example of fare-free transport delivering social-equity and political-support benefits more than a large modal shift.

Read the full analysis: https://www.worldtransitresearch.info/research/6622