Good practice

Canada Revenue Agency — AI-driven detection of unwarranted GST/HST refund claims

Canada · Ottawa · See the Canada profile

Canada Revenue Agency uses ML and AI-powered analytics to detect unwarranted GST/HST refund claims. Since 2017–18, over C$1.1 billion in carousel-scheme fraud identified; compliance activities now flag over C$1.5 billion in suspicious refund claims annually.

C$1.1 billion+

Reembolsos indebidos de esquemas tipo carrusel identificados desde 2017–18 (2017–18 to present)

C$1.5 billion+

Solicitudes de reembolso sospechosas señaladas anualmente (2023–24)

C$42 million

Monto que superó el objetivo del Presupuesto 2021 (2023–24)

C$425.7 million

Inversión total en cumplimiento (Presupuestos 2016/2017/2018/2021)

Details

Maturity: Established
Promoter: Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) / Agence du revenu du Canada
Period: 2018-present
Keywords: tax compliance, machine learning, GST/HST fraud, carousel fraud, risk scoring, data analytics

Context

La Agencia Tributaria de Canadá (Canada Revenue Agency) utiliza modelos de aprendizaje automático y de puntuación de riesgo basados en IA — cruzando las declaraciones de GST/HST con datos bancarios, de nóminas, de redes de proveedores y de importación/exportación — para señalar solicitudes de reembolso sospechosas, en particular el fraude tipo 'carrusel', antes de que se paguen los reembolsos; auditores humanos revisan todas las declaraciones señaladas por la IA, y el sistema opera bajo la Directive on Automated Decision-Making del Consejo del Tesoro.

Results

Desde 2017–18, las actividades de cumplimiento asistidas por IA han identificado más de C$1.100 millones en reembolsos indebidos vinculados a esquemas de tipo carrusel; para 2023–24 el sistema señala anualmente más de C$1.500 millones en solicitudes sospechosas, y el Informe de Resultados Departamentales 2023–24 de la CRA confirma que superó en C$42 millones el objetivo del Presupuesto 2021, que era identificar C$250 millones en reembolsos indebidos, en ese ejercicio fiscal.

Implementation

Implementation detail (cost, timeline, staffing, conditions for success) is not yet available for this practice.

Data sources

Where this practice's information was retrieved from, and when.

C-NAPSE web research — accessed 2026-06-20
Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) / Agence du revenu du Canada — accessed 2026-06-20
CRA — Aggressive GST/HST tax schemes (official) — accessed 2026-06-20
Canadian Accountant — How the CRA uses AI in tax audits — accessed 2026-06-20
Canadian Tax Foundation Perspectives — Emerging technologies and tax compliance (2024) — accessed 2026-06-20

Quality score: 73/100

How is this calculated?

Evidence: Observational / pre–post

Top 16% in this catalogue (246 scored practices)

Scores cluster high, so position within the catalogue is often more telling than the number alone.

Evaluation

Evaluated by C-NAPSE

Score profile — the dimensions behind the score — how it's computed

Evidence of impact / measured public value3/3

Official Departmental Results Reports confirm C$1.1 billion identified since 2017–18 and C$1.5 billion+ in suspicious claims flagged annually, providing large-scale, verifiable public-finance impact documented in government accountability reports.

Transparency, fairness & accountability2/3

Aggregate outcomes published in annual Departmental Results Reports and on official campaign pages; CRA is subject to the Treasury Board's Directive on Automated Decision-Making; however, model features, thresholds, and algorithmic logic are not publicly disclosed.

Transferability / demonstrated replication1/3

No documented formal replication of CRA's specific deployment; other tax authorities (ATO Australia, HMRC UK) use analogous AI approaches independently — demonstrating the concept is replicable but not that CRA's model has been directly transferred.

Scalability beyond pilot3/3

System has operated at national scale since 2018, assessing GST/HST returns across all Canadian registrants before human review; expanded through successive budgets to 2021 with C$425.7 million in technology and compliance investments.

Governance, capability & sustainability2/3

Subject to Directive on Automated Decision-Making (DAMA) including impact-assessment requirements; CRA internal audit function and Parliament's Public Accounts Committee provide oversight; no independent external algorithmic audit has been published.

Cite this

Evidoria. Canada Revenue Agency — AI-driven detection of unwarranted GST/HST refund claims. Persistent ID: 8b7f24fc-37eb-4aeb-a29b-f42af9d122d6.

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