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Good practice Imported

Ofqual's 2020 Exam-Grading Algorithm — A National Cautionary Case in Automated Assessment

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When COVID-19 cancelled exams, England's regulator Ofqual used a statistical model to standardise A-level and GCSE grades; it downgraded 39% of teacher-predicted grades, hit disadvantaged pupils hardest, and was scrapped within four days.

39%
Teacher-predicted grades downgraded by at least one grade (2020)
4 days
Days between results release and the algorithm being scrapped (13–17 August 2020)
15 students
Minimum cohort size excluded from the moderation model
Ofqual's 2020 Exam-Grading Algorithm — A National Cautionary Case in Automated Assessment

Details

Maturity
Discontinued
Promoter
Ofqual (Office of Qualifications and Examinations Regulation)
Period
2020
Keywords
algorithmic assessment, exam regulation, statistical moderation, education policy

Context

When the COVID-19 pandemic cancelled A-level and GCSE exams in England in 2020, exams regulator Ofqual needed a way to award grades without sitting exams. Schools submitted Centre Assessment Grades (teachers' predicted grades) and a rank order of students within each grade; Ofqual then applied a statistical model that adjusted these predictions using each school's historical grade distribution from the previous three years and subject-level GCSE attainment data, to prevent nationwide grade inflation.

Results

When results were released on 13 August 2020, the model had downgraded 39% of teachers' predicted grades by at least one grade. Ofqual's own deputy director confirmed pupils from disadvantaged backgrounds were more likely to see larger downward adjustments, while the model was not applied to cohorts smaller than 15 students — a category including many fee-paying schools. Public anger and cross-party criticism followed; on 17 August, four days after results day, Ofqual reversed course and awarded students their teacher-predicted grades instead. Ofqual's chief regulator resigned on 25 August, and the Department for Education's permanent secretary resigned on 28 August.

Implementation
Indicative cost
Low (< €50k)
Time to results
Short (< 1 year)
Staffing & skills
Ofqual statisticians/analysts, school teachers producing Centre Assessment Grades

Conditions for success

  • pre-release public scrutiny and consultation with affected students
  • transparency about how the model treats small and disadvantaged cohorts
  • an approach that does not trade individual fairness for population-level target-matching

Common failure modes

  • optimised for matching historical national grade distributions at the expense of individual fairness
  • no pre-release scrutiny or affected-student consultation
  • undisclosed treatment of small/fee-paying cohorts
  • disproportionate downgrades for disadvantaged pupils

Commonly funded by

National / regional programmes

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Data sources

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