What works in Mbarara

The evidence shows three distinct interventions in Mbarara district. Trees for Global Benefits engaged 50,000+ smallholders across 34,000 hectares of agroforestry over 20 years, generating ~7.5 million tonnes of CO2 and US$8.7 million in performance-based payments to farmers. Nile Breweries and WWF have restored 80.3 hectares of riverbank along a 27 km stretch of the River Rwizi since 2019, with 1,076 households adopting soil-conservation trenches, though water-quality improvements remain unverified. A machine-learning dropout-risk model developed in six Mbarara/Isingiro schools identified financial hardship, travel distance and bullying as leading risk factors for secondary-school dropout, though the authors note the model's moderate accuracy precludes autonomous high-stakes use.