Atlantic Forest Restoration Pact — 15 Million Hectare Goal, but a Third of Regenerated Forest Is Cleared Again Within 4–8 Years (Brazil)

Founded in 2009, the Pact brings together more than 300 institutions around a goal of restoring 15 million hectares of the Atlantic Forest by 2050, prioritising areas with high natural-regeneration potential to cut costs, with planting for larger rural properties. Press reports cite roughly 1 Mha recovered after 13 years; interim targets have shifted (1 Mha by 2020, later 2 Mha by 2025).
A peer-reviewed satellite study (Piffer et al., Environmental Research Letters, 2022, using MapBiomas at 30 m) found 4.47 Mha of native forest regenerated between 1985 and 2019. About two-thirds (3.1 Mha) persisted, but 1.37 Mha was cleared again, with the vast majority lost after 4–8 years (mean age 7.9 years versus 15.6 for persistent stands). Regrowth along rivers and in permanent-preservation areas lasted longer; pasture and shifting-agriculture land was re-cleared more. The authors suggest the 2006 Atlantic Forest Law, which restricts clearing of forest older than 10 years, may encourage landowners to clear early, though they did not study motives.
The case is included as a cautionary one: hectare targets are only as good as persistence, and the study implies restoration programmes need tenure, incentives and monitoring that keep forest standing beyond a decade.

Read the full analysis: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5ae1