Paying Farmers Upfront Not to Burn — A Randomised PES Trial Against Crop-Residue Burning (Punjab, India)

Farmers in Punjab commonly burn rice stubble to clear fields cheaply, estimated to drive 30-40% of winter air pollution in New Delhi. Researchers tested whether payments for ecosystem services (PES), and the timing of payment, could change that behaviour.

Determine whether standard (pay-on-compliance) versus partly-upfront PES contracts reduce crop-residue burning, measured via satellite detection.

A randomised controlled trial covered roughly 1,700 farmers in 171 villages during the 2019 kharif season. Some farmers were offered a standard PES contract (₹800-1,600/acre, paid only after verified compliance); others received the same contract with 25-50% paid upfront and unconditionally.

About 72% of farmers in both arms signed contracts. Standard PES produced no significant reduction in burning versus control. Upfront-component contracts performed very differently: compliance rose to ~18.5% versus 8.5% for standard contracts, and satellite-based measures showed an 8-11 percentage-point reduction in burning. The team estimated a benefit-to-cost ratio of 125-190x from avoided health damages, translating to roughly $3,600-5,400 per life saved.

The trial's key governance finding is that contract design — specifically payment timing, not just size — determines whether agricultural PES changes behaviour among liquidity-constrained farmers; standard delayed-payment PES showed no significant effect.