Vogelaarwijken (Krachtwijkenaanpak) — The Netherlands' 40-Neighbourhood Investment Programme and Its Null Results

In 2007 Minister Ella Vogelaar launched the 'Wijkenaanpak' (district approach), designating 40 disadvantaged neighbourhoods for concentrated investment in housing, education, employment, integration and safety. In 2008-2011 the Dutch government invested EUR 216 million, while housing corporations added roughly EUR 1 billion (CPB, 2016).
The Netherlands Institute for Social Research (SCP) followed the 40 districts from 2006 to 2012 and compared them with neighbourhoods just outside the selection that received no extra money; according to press coverage of its 2013 report 'Werk aan de Wijk', the two groups developed in essentially the same way, i.e. no measurable improvement in quality of life, safety or poverty exit. Large-scale demolition and rebuilding of post-war flats was reported as the one intervention that visibly changed the districts.
A quasi-experimental study of physical activity found some evidence of a positive change in walking in the target districts (based on 48,401 adults, 2004-2011), but no change in cycling or sport, and no link to intensity of environmental interventions; it noted a 40% non-response rate and only 3.5 years of follow-up. CPB researchers (Gerritsen, ter Weel, Webbink, 2016) also showed that the selection of the 40 areas involved sorting around the eligibility threshold, which complicates causal evaluation.
The programme is valuable mainly as an honest cautionary case: large budgets and a clear area-based design did not, on the best available comparisons, outperform the counterfactual, and funding was reduced from 2012.

Read the full analysis: https://nltimes.nl/2013/07/30/vogelaar-districts-successful